Managing risk and uncertainty through adaptive forest management

Authors: Grace B. Villamor, Andrew Dunningham, Andrea Grant, Peter W. Clinton
Publication: New Zealand Journal of Forestry, Volume N.Z.J.For. 2022, Issue N.Z.J.For. 67(2) 2022, pp 3–10, Aug 2022
Publisher: New Zealand Institute of Forestry

Abstract: Despite advances in science and technology contributing to the progress of humankind, the presence of known, unknown and uncertain risk remains an important societal challenge. Modern-day decision-making is already complex. Furthering our understanding of the significant uncertainties related to climate change, market fluctuations and changing demand for products and services can only benefit society going forward. This paper outlines areas of research currently being undertaken as part of the Resilient Forest Programme (funded by Scion’s Strategic Science Investment Fund and the Forest Growers Levy Trust) to better understand the sources of risk and uncertainty influencing returns from plantation forests. The aim is to provide insight into approaches and tools, including adaptive management options that can be used to eliminate risk and mitigate risk outcomes. The objective of the research is to provide the forest industry with a better understanding of the permutations of risk, and to simulate the use of adaptive management pathways to achieve sector resilience under ever-changing climatic-environmental and socio-economic uncertainty.
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