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Observations on the wood availability forecasts
Authors: Nigel ChandlerPublication: New Zealand Journal of Forestry, Volume N.Z.J.For. 2016, Issue N.Z.J.For. 61(1) 2016, pp 20-30, May 2016
Publisher: New Zealand Institute of Forestry
Abstract: The latest round of Wood Availability Forecasts are nearly complete. This paper initially provides an overview of the inputs and processes used in the generation of the forecasts. It then compares the previous round of forecasts (produced between 2006 and 2009) against estimated roundwood removals from 2007 to 2014. This showed that during the period 2007 to 2014, estimated roundwood removals were between 5% and 11% higher than the forecast indicative harvest levels. A comparison of the latest (2014) forecasts to the previous forecasts is then made. In most regions, the projected long-term harvest levels have increased, despite the planted area declining in the intervening six to nine years. The harvest level increases have been driven by increased yield expectations, and an increasing proportion of higher yielding unpruned regimes. The increasing proportion of supply coming from the small-scale owner resource is highlighted, as well as the uneven age-class distribution of the plantation estate due to the 1990s planting boom. Combined, these may have implications for domestic processors seeking to obtain a steady supply of logs. The impact on forecast supply by log type, as a result of the more widespread implementation of radiata pine unpruned regimes, is also shown. The availability of Douglas-fir, except in Otago-Southland, is also forecast to decline over time.