Modelling the impact of carbon trading legislation on New Zealand’s plantation estate

Authors: Bruce Manley, Piers Maclaren
Publication: New Zealand Journal of Forestry, Volume N.Z.J.For. 2009, Issue N.Z.J.For. 54(1) 2009, pp 39-44, May 2009
Publisher: New Zealand Institute of Forestry

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Abstract: The New Zealand Government has enacted legislation for an emission trading scheme (ETS) under which owners of Kyotocompliant forests will receive/surrender credits for increases/decreases in the carbon stocks of their plantations. Stand-level analysis indicates that carbon trading will have a number of impacts: • the increase in forest profitability will encourage afforestation; • silvicultural regimes that give increased biomass production will be preferred; • rotation length will increase. The goal of the ETS is to provide incentives to land and forest owners to make decisions that help the New Zealand Government meet its Kyoto Protocol obligations. This paper gives the results of an analysis that models the likely impact of the ETS on the carbon stock in New Zealand’s plantation estate. An estate model is developed for New Zealand’s 573,000 ha Kyoto-compliant estate. Potential land for afforestation is also included in the model. The impact on national carbon stock of changing rotation length and afforestation rate are evaluated separately. Changing silvicultural regimes is then evaluated in combination with these factors. Results indicate that the ETS has the potential to ensure that New Zealand’s Kyoto-compliant estate does not become a net source of carbon.

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