More Information
8.1 International Supply, Demand and Market Trends
Authors: D NeilsonPublication: NZIF Forestry Handbook, Volume Section 8 – Forest products markets, pp 1, Dec 2023
Publisher: New Zealand Institute of Forestry
Abstract: The previous edition of the Handbook presented articles on international supply and demand and market prospects written by Dr Sutton and Mr Gorman. The author for this edition, therefore, has the advantage of hindsight in reviewing the then conventional wisdom on these topics in the early 1990s. This article reviews the views of a decade ago, reviews the changes that have occurred at the macro level, and then suggests some possible future trends. No attempt is made to provide a prediction of future global wood supply and demand. One thing that has been learnt over the last 10 years is that, other than for short periods of inventory adjustments, it is unlikely that there will be any shortages of wood in the foreseeable future (25 years plus). There will be only surpluses or balances. It is likely that wood and non-wood substitution will always be there to fill in any regional gaps. What were the major long-term elements of supply and demand and other factors which were presented in the Handbook almost 10 years ago in 1995, and what does the benefit of hindsight bring?